Aid, Trade and Development: The Future of Globalization, Second Edition

This volume presents a broad sweep of modern economic history underpinning aid, trade, development and globalization in the last half century and the salient challenges facing the global community today. The author draws on his long years as an academic and development practitioner to recommend what needs to be done to cope with the backsliding of the fight against global poverty, fractured geopolitics and the threats to the multilateral economic order. The new, revised edition analyses how unilateralism, rising protectionism and the Covid-19 pandemic seriously threaten global sustainable development. It concludes with recommendations on the policy changes needed to make globalization more equitable and development more sustainable. This book will be of interest to researchers and students of economic development and economic history, as well as all those concerned about global inequality and sustainability. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.

The Role of Political Connections in COVID Policy Response: Effectiveness of Firm-Level Government Support in Egypt

The COVID-19 pandemic saw two sets of policy responses: lockdown to limit spread of the virus, which was a huge demand and supply shock, and government support to firms and individuals to offset the effects of this policy-induced shock. This paper explores the allocation and effectiveness of government support to firms in Egypt. We consider both financial support measures which were by and large already being implemented pre-COVID, as well as tax- and loan-related exemptions and deferments. After controlling for the endogeneity of government support, our main findings show that the latter has helped mitigate the effects of COVID-19, with a significantly larger, favorable impact on smaller, younger and private firms. There is no equity-effectiveness trade-off. However, although these firms apparently make better use of government support, they receive a disproportionately smaller share of it. In line with the emerging ‘unsocial' social contract, government support has been chiefly determined by political connections and a captured industrial policy. This ‘misallocation' reinforces the ‘missing middle' phenomenon which acts as a constraint as SMEs are unable to grow. Nevertheless, the crisis has presented a chance for the pattern of support to slowly shift towards the more vulnerable through the more frequent use of ‘exemptions and deferments'. © 2023 German Institute of Development and Sustainability.

Corporate Restructuring Laws Under Stress

Bail-outs by way of loan have a similar effect (on the debtor: plainly, the cost of delivering relief is allocated differently as between a bail-out and a bail-in) in that they enable the debtor to meet current fixed costs through borrowing, in effect swapping shorter-term liabilities with a longer-term liability. The authors acknowledge the support of the Oxford Law Faculty in funding the Conference "Corporate Restructuring Laws Under Stress" (St Hugh's College, Oxford, 10 October 2022) at which the papers in this special issue were first presented, and the support of the Covid-19 Research Response Fund at Oxford University, which provided funding for the wider project of which the Conference formed one part. Most authors, however, express some concerns in relation to Covid-19 bail-out design, and in particular query whether some bail-outs may have been too generous. [Extracted from the article] Copyright of European Business Organization Law Review is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Economic impact of government intervention in response to covid-19 in selected sub-Saharan African countries

This article provides insights into the economic impact of government actions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in selected Sub-Saharan Africa countries, purposively selected. A fixed-effect modelling approach was utilised drawing on Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) database from January 21 to September 17, 2020, in South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Uganda. Key findings entail those announcements of government lockdowns were positively related to COVID-19 cases and negatively related to restrictions on internal movement and interest rate decisions from the central banks. Governments' announcements regarding income support packages and debt relief were related to the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. With most global economies grappling with a second wave, and the consequences of the first surge in both social well-being and economic growth, income and debt relief strategies should be continued to benefit households and companies. In addition, countries in the Africa-Sub Saharan region must create a relief fund to support members in distress. Finally, a sustainable regional model on business and tourism must be created to foster development and growth during periods of partial or total lockdown. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Development Southern Africa is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Unpleasant surprises? Debt relief and risk of sovereign default

Purpose: The Covid-19 pandemic has rekindled interest in sovereign debt crises amidst calls for debt relief for developing and emerging countries. But has debt relief lessened the debt burdens of emerging and developing economies? The purpose of this paper is to empirically address this question. In particular, the focus is on the implications of debt relief and institutional qualities for sovereign debt in emerging and developing economies. Design/methodology/approach: The model extends the framework on the probability of default by incorporating the receipt of debt relief by a debtor country. Doing so allows to better explain movements of sovereign defaults relating to debt relief. The model is estimated via the regular probit regression. Findings: The analysis shows that the debt relief provided, thus, far, failed to ease the debt overhang problems of developing and emerging countries and reduced investment. The current debt relief schemes may underscore the prospects of self-enforcing and self-fulfilling sovereign debt crises rather than eliminating the dilemma completely. Regarding the forms of debt relief, the analysis shows that debt forgiveness offers favourable prospects in terms of debt sustainability and economic outcomes than debt rescheduling. Perhaps, the sovereign debt crises, particularly in low-income countries, hinge on insolvency problems rather than transitory illiquidity issues. Practical implications: Any debt relief mechanism should consider seriously the potential incentive effect that reinforces expectations of future debt-relief initiatives. Importantly, solving the sovereign debt problem requires a programme for sustained investment and economic growth, while not discounting the critical role of prudent debt management policies and institutions. Originality/value: This study contributes a different angle to the debate on sovereign debt distress. Aside from the structural and economic factors, this study investigates the role of debt management policy in the debtor nation and the implications of debt relief benefits for sovereign risk. The framework also focuses on whether the different forms of debt relief exert distinctive impacts. © 2022, Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme.

Governments' economic support for households during the COVID-19 pandemic and consumer confidence.

To combat the adverse consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have implemented various economic policies. This study examines how different types of government economic support for households are associated with consumer confidence. Utilizing data from 35 countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development for January 2020-October 2021 and applying panel fixed effect and system generalized methods of moments regressions, we show that higher levels of government economic support lead to higher levels of consumer confidence. The results also suggest that government income support for households has a stronger impact than debt/contract relief on consumer confidence during the pandemic in the full sample. Moreover, we find that debt/contract relief is a more effective policy to boost confidence in emerging economies. Finally, COVID-19 fatalities have a significant negative effect on consumer confidence.

Unpleasant surprises? Debt relief and risk of sovereign default

PurposeThe Covid-19 pandemic has rekindled interest in sovereign debt crises amidst calls for debt relief for developing and emerging countries. But has debt relief lessened the debt burdens of emerging and developing economies? The purpose of this paper is to empirically address this question. In particular, the focus is on the implications of debt relief and institutional qualities for sovereign debt in emerging and developing economies. Design/methodology/approachThe model extends the framework on the probability of default by incorporating the receipt of debt relief by a debtor country. Doing so allows to better explain movements of sovereign defaults relating to debt relief. The model is estimated via the regular probit regression. FindingsThe analysis shows that the debt relief provided, thus, far, failed to ease the debt overhang problems of developing and emerging countries and reduced investment. The current debt relief schemes may underscore the prospects of self-enforcing and self-fulfilling sovereign debt crises rather than eliminating the dilemma completely. Regarding the forms of debt relief, the analysis shows that debt forgiveness offers favourable prospects in terms of debt sustainability and economic outcomes than debt rescheduling. Perhaps, the sovereign debt crises, particularly in low-income countries, hinge on insolvency problems rather than transitory illiquidity issues. Practical implicationsAny debt relief mechanism should consider seriously the potential incentive effect that reinforces expectations of future debt-relief initiatives. Importantly, solving the sovereign debt problem requires a programme for sustained investment and economic growth, while not discounting the critical role of prudent debt management policies and institutions. Originality/valueThis study contributes a different angle to the debate on sovereign debt distress. Aside from the structural and economic factors, this study investigates the role of debt management policy in the debtor nation and the implications of debt relief benefits for sovereign risk. The framework also focuses on whether the different forms of debt relief exert distinctive impacts.

Towards HIPC 2.0? Lessons from Past Debt Relief Initiatives for Addressing Current Debt Problems

When the COVID-19 pandemic added to already elevated debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries, the G20 launched the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) and the Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI, which have provided limited relief so far. For several countries, deeper and more wide-ranging debt treatments will likely be needed to secure future debt sustainability. This paper looks at the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, the largest and most comprehensive debt relief effort for low-income countries to date, as a potential reference point for the 2020s. While the HIPC initiative appears to have been a qualified success, its replication in the current context would be infeasible and undesirable. Creditor base heterogeneity justifies a more flexible, differentiated approach to debt restructuring. Yet, the HIPC experience holds valuable lessons. "Delay and replay"tendencies should be avoided. Involving commercial creditors is a real challenge, requiring carrots and sticks. And imposing extra conditionality on debt relief proceeds could be helpful but should not be overdone. Even if the Common Framework is unlikely to suffice in case of a systemic debt crisis, its inter-creditor dialogue could perhaps serve as the basis for a more inclusive advisory body or forum for debt restructuring. © 2022 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston 2022.

G20 in the Second Decade of the 21st Century. Steering the World Towards Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Development

The COVID pandemic and global lockdown of 2020 strongly hit the system of global governance. The subsequent large-scale economic crisis highlighted the accumulated problems in public health and global economy, accelerated inequality growth, undermined progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, and questioned the prevailing globalization paradigm. The system of international institutions in general and the G20 as the main cooperation forum of the world's leading economies are often criticized for their inability to effectively address crises. However, as shown in this article, the G20 managed to quickly implement a coordinated set of large-scale measures to overcome the pandemic and its consequences and became a coordinator of anti-crisis actions. The author concludes that the unique characteristics of the G20 will allow it to remain the flagship of international efforts to ensure strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth of the world economy, and suggests a number of priorities for the G20 agenda.

Achieving HIV targets by 2030: the possibility of using debt relief funds for sustainable HIV treatment in sub-Saharan Africa.

This paper assesses the possibility of using debt relief funds to sustain HIV treatment in sub-Saharan Africa, suppress transmission, and reach global goals to quell the epidemic by 2030. The cost of providing antiretroviral treatment is a huge burden on African countries. Concerns for Africa's capacity to keep pace with global advances are well founded. By analysing levels of 'debt distress', health expenditure per capita, and HIV antiretroviral therapy requirements in sub-Saharan African countries, the need for innovative finance with international cooperation emerges clearly. In addition to the HIV epidemic, African countries may become more vulnerable to disasters and other public health diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis, Ebola and COVID-19, especially without alternatives to current means of financing. Relief from debt service payments could release funds for sub-Saharan African countries to support universal HIV antiretroviral treatment with sustainable results.